EL CARMEN (NORTE DE SANTANDER)
Municipio code 25037. 45 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 6366.69086 / (1 + e^(-0.17324(t - 33.85432))) | 6366.69086 | 0.17324 | 33.85432 | 0.99889 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 2180.89514 / (1 + e^(-0.15774(t - 33.02481))) | 2180.89514 | 0.15774 | 33.02481 | 0.99698 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 4082.74166 / (1 + e^(-0.18191(t - 34.20462))) | 4082.74166 | 0.18191 | 34.20462 | 0.99882 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 52.89525 / (1 + e^(-0.20152(t - 32.63896))) | 52.89525 | 0.20152 | 32.63896 | 0.99821 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 40.03296 / (1 + e^(-0.16573(t - 38.11915))) | 40.03296 | 0.16573 | 38.11915 | 0.99806 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 10.01960 / (1 + e^(-0.22184(t - 36.00564))) | 10.01960 | 0.22184 | 36.00564 | 0.98700 |
| Validos | y(t) = 6316.64864 / (1 + e^(-0.17334(t - 33.82499))) | 6316.64864 | 0.17334 | 33.82499 | 0.99889 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 44.99650 / (1 + e^(-0.15914(t - 31.89442))) | 44.99650 | 0.15914 | 31.89442 | 0.99737 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 4.3% | 273 | 237 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 3 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 19.4% | 1,235 | 573 | 649 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1,230 | 12 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 30.7% | 1,956 | 754 | 1,172 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1,944 | 19 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 50.1% | 3,189 | 1,074 | 2,070 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 3,173 | 26 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 68.4% | 4,351 | 1,509 | 2,773 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 4,325 | 32 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 87.8% | 5,589 | 1,965 | 3,536 | 48 | 30 | 10 | 5,549 | 40 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 92.5% | 5,885 | 2,055 | 3,738 | 49 | 33 | 10 | 5,842 | 42 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 98.8% | 6,286 | 2,134 | 4,053 | 50 | 39 | 10 | 6,237 | 44 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 98.8% | 6,286 | 2,134 | 4,053 | 50 | 39 | 10 | 6,237 | 44 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 6,364 | 2,179 | 4,082 | 53 | 40 | 10 | 6,314 | 45 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex