GUEPSA (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27106. 13 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 2648.55367 / (1 + e^(-0.23545(t - 36.26024))) | 2648.55367 | 0.23545 | 36.26024 | 0.99757 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 857.61302 / (1 + e^(-0.25160(t - 36.63234))) | 857.61302 | 0.25160 | 36.63234 | 0.99748 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 1727.82232 / (1 + e^(-0.23045(t - 36.14947))) | 1727.82232 | 0.23045 | 36.14947 | 0.99758 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 32.01599 / (1 + e^(-0.18554(t - 31.97114))) | 32.01599 | 0.18554 | 31.97114 | 0.99454 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 29.03178 / (1 + e^(-0.23438(t - 35.10452))) | 29.03178 | 0.23438 | 35.10452 | 0.99624 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 2.00339 / (1 + e^(-0.18505(t - 39.02864))) | 2.00339 | 0.18505 | 39.02864 | 0.97658 |
| Validos | y(t) = 2617.52378 / (1 + e^(-0.23554(t - 36.27172))) | 2617.52378 | 0.23554 | 36.27172 | 0.99757 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 13.01308 / (1 + e^(-0.23166(t - 36.10657))) | 13.01308 | 0.23166 | 36.10657 | 0.99728 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 8.4% | 223 | 50 | 163 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 219 | 1 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 21.1% | 559 | 161 | 376 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 552 | 3 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 30.2% | 800 | 234 | 538 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 789 | 4 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 68.8% | 1,820 | 591 | 1,181 | 25 | 22 | 1 | 1,797 | 9 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 84.2% | 2,229 | 711 | 1,463 | 28 | 26 | 1 | 2,202 | 11 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 2,646 | 857 | 1,726 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2,615 | 13 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex