GUAVATA (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27103. 13 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 3019.99790 / (1 + e^(-0.18507(t - 38.64244))) | 3019.99790 | 0.18507 | 38.64244 | 0.99858 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 994.12982 / (1 + e^(-0.17877(t - 38.56370))) | 994.12982 | 0.17877 | 38.56370 | 0.99799 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 1963.85941 / (1 + e^(-0.18858(t - 38.68501))) | 1963.85941 | 0.18858 | 38.68501 | 0.99875 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 41.00753 / (1 + e^(-0.18626(t - 39.01416))) | 41.00753 | 0.18626 | 39.01416 | 0.99779 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 18.98760 / (1 + e^(-0.19439(t - 36.26119))) | 18.98760 | 0.19439 | 36.26119 | 0.99288 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 2.00351 / (1 + e^(-0.18504(t - 49.02977))) | 2.00351 | 0.18504 | 49.02977 | 0.98131 |
| Validos | y(t) = 2999.00320 / (1 + e^(-0.18514(t - 38.65041))) | 2999.00320 | 0.18514 | 38.65041 | 0.99859 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 13.00204 / (1 + e^(-0.18153(t - 38.84585))) | 13.00204 | 0.18153 | 38.84585 | 0.99856 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 14.5% | 437 | 168 | 260 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 434 | 2 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 31.6% | 954 | 313 | 620 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 945 | 4 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 54.9% | 1,657 | 564 | 1,058 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 1,644 | 7 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 70.5% | 2,130 | 681 | 1,408 | 27 | 13 | 1 | 2,116 | 9 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 85.0% | 2,568 | 842 | 1,670 | 37 | 18 | 1 | 2,549 | 11 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 92.5% | 2,795 | 921 | 1,818 | 37 | 18 | 1 | 2,776 | 12 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 3,020 | 994 | 1,964 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 2,999 | 13 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex