EL GUACAMAYO (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27073. 6 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 1033.06005 / (1 + e^(-0.23628(t - 34.46242))) | 1033.06005 | 0.23628 | 34.46242 | 0.99154 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 115.95026 / (1 + e^(-0.30940(t - 32.79625))) | 115.95026 | 0.30940 | 32.79625 | 0.99643 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 894.32414 / (1 + e^(-0.22834(t - 34.79550))) | 894.32414 | 0.22834 | 34.79550 | 0.99046 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 12.98992 / (1 + e^(-0.20716(t - 32.47642))) | 12.98992 | 0.20716 | 32.47642 | 0.97893 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 7.97227 / (1 + e^(-0.55249(t - 32.21832))) | 7.97227 | 0.55249 | 32.21832 | 0.99507 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 2.00339 / (1 + e^(-0.18505(t - 39.02864))) | 2.00339 | 0.18505 | 39.02864 | 0.97658 |
| Validos | y(t) = 1023.08770 / (1 + e^(-0.23572(t - 34.47493))) | 1023.08770 | 0.23572 | 34.47493 | 0.99158 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 6.00083 / (1 + e^(-0.19251(t - 31.50143))) | 6.00083 | 0.19251 | 31.50143 | 0.99494 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 3.5% | 36 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 3.5% | 36 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 13.1% | 135 | 22 | 110 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 2 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 58.0% | 600 | 70 | 513 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 593 | 4 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 75.5% | 781 | 105 | 658 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 773 | 5 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 75.5% | 781 | 105 | 658 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 773 | 5 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 1,034 | 116 | 895 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1,024 | 6 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex