EL CARMEN (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27071. 43 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
| Total votes | y(t) = 8688.24317 / (1 + e^(-0.17047(t - 46.29243))) | 8688.24317 | 0.17047 | 46.29243 | 0.99762 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 841.38849 / (1 + e^(-0.16995(t - 46.01188))) | 841.38849 | 0.16995 | 46.01188 | 0.99742 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 7682.56318 / (1 + e^(-0.17057(t - 46.31834))) | 7682.56318 | 0.17057 | 46.31834 | 0.99764 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 96.14836 / (1 + e^(-0.16548(t - 45.55454))) | 96.14836 | 0.16548 | 45.55454 | 0.99736 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 54.09537 / (1 + e^(-0.20504(t - 48.46735))) | 54.09537 | 0.20504 | 48.46735 | 0.99697 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 14.02504 / (1 + e^(-0.12551(t - 44.92742))) | 14.02504 | 0.12551 | 44.92742 | 0.98954 |
| Validos | y(t) = 8620.10654 / (1 + e^(-0.17044(t - 46.28008))) | 8620.10654 | 0.17044 | 46.28008 | 0.99762 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 43.06614 / (1 + e^(-0.15967(t - 44.35552))) | 43.06614 | 0.15967 | 44.35552 | 0.99798 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 2.3% | 200 | 16 | 181 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 2 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 2.4% | 209 | 17 | 189 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 3 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 14.9% | 1,295 | 122 | 1,151 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 1,288 | 9 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 23.3% | 2,018 | 214 | 1,763 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 2,002 | 12 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 40.5% | 3,510 | 352 | 3,093 | 43 | 15 | 7 | 3,488 | 21 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 61.0% | 5,289 | 513 | 4,679 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 5,253 | 29 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 71.6% | 6,211 | 608 | 5,488 | 69 | 37 | 9 | 6,165 | 33 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 97.2% | 8,433 | 826 | 7,447 | 94 | 54 | 12 | 8,367 | 42 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 8,674 | 840 | 7,670 | 96 | 54 | 14 | 8,606 | 43 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex