CARCASI (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27037. 16 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 2359.72502 / (1 + e^(-0.23461(t - 33.97259))) | 2359.72502 | 0.23461 | 33.97259 | 0.99652 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 265.44324 / (1 + e^(-0.24015(t - 35.80334))) | 265.44324 | 0.24015 | 35.80334 | 0.99318 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 2060.23204 / (1 + e^(-0.23513(t - 33.74334))) | 2060.23204 | 0.23513 | 33.74334 | 0.99683 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 26.01279 / (1 + e^(-0.29755(t - 32.83803))) | 26.01279 | 0.29755 | 32.83803 | 0.99932 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 7.00731 / (1 + e^(-0.64902(t - 40.09156))) | 7.00731 | 0.64902 | 40.09156 | 0.98733 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 1.00000 / (1 + e^(-9.64773(t - 26.49971))) | 1.00000 | 9.64773 | 26.49971 | 1.00000 |
| Validos | y(t) = 2351.70745 / (1 + e^(-0.23467(t - 33.95979))) | 2351.70745 | 0.23467 | 33.95979 | 0.99654 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 16.01339 / (1 + e^(-0.21832(t - 31.91906))) | 16.01339 | 0.21832 | 31.91906 | 0.99729 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.8% | 20 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 7.1% | 168 | 6 | 161 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 2 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 26.8% | 631 | 62 | 561 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 630 | 6 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 52.0% | 1,226 | 108 | 1,100 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1,223 | 10 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 67.9% | 1,601 | 150 | 1,426 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1,598 | 12 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 2,357 | 265 | 2,058 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 2,349 | 16 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex