ARIGUANI (EL DIFICIL) (MAGDALENA)
Municipio code 21012. 73 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
| Total votes | y(t) = 13734.07047 / (1 + e^(-0.20877(t - 42.67837))) | 13734.07047 | 0.20877 | 42.67837 | 0.99927 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 6403.41667 / (1 + e^(-0.20983(t - 42.54284))) | 6403.41667 | 0.20983 | 42.54284 | 0.99916 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 7057.64447 / (1 + e^(-0.20777(t - 42.80018))) | 7057.64447 | 0.20777 | 42.80018 | 0.99933 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 147.13297 / (1 + e^(-0.20658(t - 41.86855))) | 147.13297 | 0.20658 | 41.86855 | 0.99919 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 104.91664 / (1 + e^(-0.21092(t - 43.73306))) | 104.91664 | 0.21092 | 43.73306 | 0.99923 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 20.99756 / (1 + e^(-0.22942(t - 43.57956))) | 20.99756 | 0.22942 | 43.57956 | 0.99870 |
| Validos | y(t) = 13608.16452 / (1 + e^(-0.20872(t - 42.66862))) | 13608.16452 | 0.20872 | 42.66862 | 0.99927 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 73.01565 / (1 + e^(-0.19675(t - 41.90714))) | 73.01565 | 0.19675 | 41.90714 | 0.99940 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 2.4% | 329 | 186 | 141 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 329 | 2 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 7.0% | 964 | 443 | 506 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 959 | 6 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 17.2% | 2,362 | 1,126 | 1,189 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 2,346 | 15 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 29.8% | 4,086 | 1,949 | 2,055 | 50 | 27 | 5 | 4,054 | 25 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 54.0% | 7,422 | 3,474 | 3,799 | 85 | 52 | 12 | 7,358 | 42 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 82.9% | 11,382 | 5,368 | 5,793 | 122 | 83 | 16 | 11,283 | 61 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 91.6% | 12,574 | 5,899 | 6,424 | 140 | 93 | 18 | 12,463 | 67 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 96.7% | 13,283 | 6,201 | 6,816 | 146 | 99 | 21 | 13,163 | 71 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 96.7% | 13,283 | 6,201 | 6,816 | 146 | 99 | 21 | 13,163 | 71 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 13,734 | 6,403 | 7,058 | 147 | 105 | 21 | 13,608 | 73 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex