MANAURE (LA GUAJIRA)
Municipio code 48011. 190 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 24215.67004 / (1 + e^(-0.16416(t - 42.33725))) | 24215.67004 | 0.16416 | 42.33725 | 0.99956 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 16174.62624 / (1 + e^(-0.16627(t - 42.13281))) | 16174.62624 | 0.16627 | 42.13281 | 0.99959 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 7342.81754 / (1 + e^(-0.15947(t - 42.75770))) | 7342.81754 | 0.15947 | 42.75770 | 0.99949 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 178.18810 / (1 + e^(-0.19597(t - 43.39548))) | 178.18810 | 0.19597 | 43.39548 | 0.99911 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 367.20248 / (1 + e^(-0.15742(t - 42.55145))) | 367.20248 | 0.15742 | 42.55145 | 0.99928 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 153.02873 / (1 + e^(-0.16945(t - 42.52504))) | 153.02873 | 0.16945 | 42.52504 | 0.99857 |
| Validos | y(t) = 23695.43451 / (1 + e^(-0.16424(t - 42.33261))) | 23695.43451 | 0.16424 | 42.33261 | 0.99956 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 190.02814 / (1 + e^(-0.15095(t - 39.95205))) | 190.02814 | 0.15095 | 39.95205 | 0.99934 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.2% | 41 | 25 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 2 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 2.1% | 520 | 358 | 150 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 510 | 11 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 8.8% | 2,129 | 1,447 | 623 | 11 | 41 | 7 | 2,081 | 32 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 22.0% | 5,337 | 3,595 | 1,588 | 30 | 88 | 36 | 5,213 | 60 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 38.3% | 9,273 | 6,284 | 2,744 | 55 | 133 | 57 | 9,083 | 90 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 56.0% | 13,549 | 9,190 | 3,984 | 88 | 201 | 86 | 13,262 | 120 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 73.3% | 17,740 | 12,015 | 5,227 | 131 | 259 | 108 | 17,373 | 148 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 88.7% | 21,479 | 14,435 | 6,415 | 167 | 325 | 137 | 21,017 | 172 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 93.6% | 22,655 | 15,206 | 6,783 | 172 | 347 | 147 | 22,161 | 181 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 96.1% | 23,263 | 15,573 | 7,011 | 178 | 353 | 148 | 22,762 | 184 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 98.9% | 23,941 | 16,011 | 7,237 | 178 | 364 | 151 | 23,426 | 188 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 24,216 | 16,175 | 7,343 | 178 | 367 | 153 | 23,696 | 190 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex