SUCRE (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27205. 22 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 3404.69345 / (1 + e^(-0.19446(t - 32.24579))) | 3404.69345 | 0.19446 | 32.24579 | 0.99117 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 557.93815 / (1 + e^(-0.27149(t - 30.93346))) | 557.93815 | 0.27149 | 30.93346 | 0.99376 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 2796.23850 / (1 + e^(-0.18391(t - 32.53635))) | 2796.23850 | 0.18391 | 32.53635 | 0.99079 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 32.91856 / (1 + e^(-0.17346(t - 33.32235))) | 32.91856 | 0.17346 | 33.32235 | 0.98696 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 14.99365 / (1 + e^(-0.25411(t - 34.80031))) | 14.99365 | 0.25411 | 34.80031 | 0.99577 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 3.00366 / (1 + e^(-0.18256(t - 26.51291))) | 3.00366 | 0.18256 | 26.51291 | 0.98379 |
| Validos | y(t) = 3386.67514 / (1 + e^(-0.19442(t - 32.23772))) | 3386.67514 | 0.19442 | 32.23772 | 0.99107 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 21.92288 / (1 + e^(-0.22247(t - 29.64078))) | 21.92288 | 0.22247 | 29.64078 | 0.99340 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 3.1% | 107 | 17 | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 105 | 2 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 6.3% | 214 | 23 | 188 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 3 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 40.8% | 1,395 | 234 | 1,143 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1,391 | 12 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 64.5% | 2,203 | 407 | 1,767 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 2,194 | 16 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 78.8% | 2,693 | 478 | 2,176 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 2,678 | 19 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 78.8% | 2,693 | 478 | 2,176 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 2,678 | 19 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 93.2% | 3,184 | 541 | 2,594 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3,166 | 21 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 93.2% | 3,184 | 541 | 2,594 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3,166 | 21 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 93.2% | 3,184 | 541 | 2,594 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3,166 | 21 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 3,417 | 560 | 2,806 | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3,399 | 22 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex