GUACA (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27094. 22 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 3687.83199 / (1 + e^(-0.27068(t - 25.26276))) | 3687.83199 | 0.27068 | 25.26276 | 0.99786 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 481.68909 / (1 + e^(-0.31638(t - 25.38437))) | 481.68909 | 0.31638 | 25.38437 | 0.99873 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 3141.39597 / (1 + e^(-0.26664(t - 25.21573))) | 3141.39597 | 0.26664 | 25.21573 | 0.99765 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 37.92414 / (1 + e^(-0.20205(t - 27.91543))) | 37.92414 | 0.20205 | 27.91543 | 0.99133 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 21.97935 / (1 + e^(-0.19807(t - 24.76524))) | 21.97935 | 0.19807 | 24.76524 | 0.99663 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 5.00715 / (1 + e^(-0.15335(t - 35.47908))) | 5.00715 | 0.15335 | 35.47908 | 0.98194 |
| Validos | y(t) = 3660.88554 / (1 + e^(-0.27172(t - 25.25554))) | 3660.88554 | 0.27172 | 25.25554 | 0.99786 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 21.97574 / (1 + e^(-0.25110(t - 23.64764))) | 21.97574 | 0.25110 | 23.64764 | 0.99800 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 1.6% | 60 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 1 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 15.9% | 587 | 72 | 504 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 581 | 6 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 40.6% | 1,498 | 174 | 1,303 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1,487 | 11 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 76.9% | 2,839 | 382 | 2,416 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 2,823 | 18 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 87.6% | 3,235 | 438 | 2,745 | 29 | 20 | 3 | 3,212 | 20 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 93.9% | 3,469 | 471 | 2,943 | 32 | 20 | 3 | 3,446 | 21 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 93.9% | 3,469 | 471 | 2,943 | 32 | 20 | 3 | 3,446 | 21 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 3,694 | 482 | 3,147 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 3,667 | 22 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex