ARATOCA (SANTANDER)
Municipio code 27010. 21 mesas total.
Rate of change (avance n − avance n-1) per series:
Logistic fit per series: y(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t - t_mid))), t = minutes since 16:00
| Series | Equation | L | k | t_mid (min) | R² |
|---|
| Total votes | y(t) = 5174.91090 / (1 + e^(-0.14129(t - 42.80698))) | 5174.91090 | 0.14129 | 42.80698 | 0.99438 |
| Cepeda | y(t) = 1022.74989 / (1 + e^(-0.14420(t - 42.16074))) | 1022.74989 | 0.14420 | 42.16074 | 0.99528 |
| Espriella | y(t) = 4050.97705 / (1 + e^(-0.14063(t - 42.95357))) | 4050.97705 | 0.14063 | 42.95357 | 0.99409 |
| Blancos | y(t) = 60.09782 / (1 + e^(-0.14836(t - 42.68916))) | 60.09782 | 0.14836 | 42.68916 | 0.99405 |
| Nulos | y(t) = 33.03979 / (1 + e^(-0.13814(t - 42.75272))) | 33.03979 | 0.13814 | 42.75272 | 0.99109 |
| No marcados | y(t) = 8.00385 / (1 + e^(-0.23451(t - 51.50612))) | 8.00385 | 0.23451 | 51.50612 | 0.99355 |
| Validos | y(t) = 5133.83594 / (1 + e^(-0.14131(t - 42.79129))) | 5133.83594 | 0.14131 | 42.79129 | 0.99439 |
| Mesas escrutadas | y(t) = 21.02242 / (1 + e^(-0.13828(t - 42.20925))) | 21.02242 | 0.13828 | 42.20925 | 0.99454 |
Full avance-by-avance data (67 points, 16:00 to 21:34):
| Avance | Time | % of final votes | Total votes | Cepeda | Espriella | Blancos | Nulos | No marcados | Validos | Mesas escrutadas |
|---|
| 0 | 16:00 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16:09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16:14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 16:19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 16:24 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 16:29 | 6.1% | 317 | 69 | 242 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 2 |
| 6 | 16:34 | 31.1% | 1,606 | 332 | 1,244 | 19 | 11 | 0 | 1,595 | 7 |
| 7 | 16:39 | 41.4% | 2,138 | 422 | 1,679 | 22 | 15 | 0 | 2,123 | 9 |
| 8 | 16:44 | 55.4% | 2,864 | 601 | 2,209 | 34 | 18 | 2 | 2,844 | 12 |
| 9 | 16:49 | 60.1% | 3,109 | 661 | 2,391 | 36 | 19 | 2 | 3,088 | 13 |
| 10 | 16:54 | 85.5% | 4,422 | 873 | 3,462 | 53 | 28 | 6 | 4,388 | 18 |
| 11 | 16:59 | 90.3% | 4,670 | 925 | 3,651 | 58 | 30 | 6 | 4,634 | 19 |
| 12 | 17:04 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 13 | 17:09 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 14 | 17:14 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 15 | 17:19 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 16 | 17:24 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 17 | 17:29 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 18 | 17:34 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 19 | 17:39 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 20 | 17:44 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 21 | 17:49 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 22 | 17:54 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 23 | 17:59 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 24 | 18:04 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 25 | 18:09 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 26 | 18:14 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 27 | 18:19 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 28 | 18:24 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 29 | 18:29 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 30 | 18:34 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 31 | 18:39 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 32 | 18:44 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 33 | 18:49 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 34 | 18:54 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 35 | 18:59 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 36 | 19:04 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 37 | 19:09 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 38 | 19:14 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 39 | 19:19 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 40 | 19:24 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 41 | 19:29 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 42 | 19:34 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 43 | 19:39 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 44 | 19:44 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 45 | 19:49 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 46 | 19:54 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 47 | 19:59 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 48 | 20:04 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 49 | 20:09 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 50 | 20:14 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 51 | 20:19 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 52 | 20:24 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 53 | 20:29 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 54 | 20:34 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 55 | 20:39 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 56 | 20:44 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 57 | 20:49 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 58 | 20:54 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 59 | 20:59 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 60 | 21:04 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 61 | 21:09 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 62 | 21:14 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 63 | 21:19 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 64 | 21:24 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 65 | 21:29 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
| 66 | 21:34 | 100.0% | 5,169 | 1,022 | 4,046 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 5,128 | 21 |
collected by @onorosaurosrex